Ecommerce in 2013
What Will the Ecommerce Ecosystem Look Like in 2013?
I hope to see some real progress within the ecommerce industry in 2013. And I am not just talking about yet another year of the Cyber Monday sales record being broken
. This article is part prediction and part wishful thinking. Here is what I think will happen:
In the second half of 2013, I see some rather famous ecommerce names turn insolvent -- with no investor coming to their rescue. These will be fair game for rather low priced strategic buyouts. A few of these will trigger a downward spiral in ecommerce valuations
. If this indeed happens, then there could be as irrational a downward move in the fancy for ecommerce stock as there was exuberance in early 2012.
Same Day Delivery
The popular verdict is that same day delivery is likely to skyrocket. My prediction is contrarian here. I do see attempts being made in several major city centers. But I do not see customers lapping up the same day delivery option with significant enthusiasm. In the long run I do see same day delivery as a growth area for ecommerce. I just do not see it being effective in 2013.
Credit cards probably should go the way of the dinosaurs, if mobile payment providers can get their act together and come up with easy-to-adopt approaches. And while they are at it, I would like to see some standardization coming in. I am not sure what mobile payments technology will make it finally. But I do see some interesting payment methods evolving in 2013.
Overall Sales Figures Will Grow at Least as Fast as in Preceding Years
Ecommerce sales figures have been growing a fast clip. I think that the percentage growth in ecommerce sales will continue at a slighter faster pace than preceding averages. And the fact that this enhanced growth will ride on a bigger base, will herald the next generation for ecommerce businesses
B2B Will Outpace B2C Ecommerce, But Will Still Remain Unheard
I predict that B2B ecommerce
(Business to Business Ecommerce) will grow at a faster rate than B2C ecommerce (Business to Consumer Ecommerce). But as always it will not make as much headlines. The exception would be some news coming in about the fantastic growth rate of Alibaba.com
Mcommerce Will Grow
It is almost as if one has no choice but to parrot this repeatedly -- mobile commerce will grow owing to increased device sale and penetration. Mcommerce
as a term is now pretty well accepted unlike the time when we first started using it. For those who worry that ecommerce transactions are peaking, this presents the raw of hope. Mobile commerce is a new field that takes shelter under the umbrella of another pretty new field -- ecommerce itself.
Fcommerce Will Grow -- An Fbank Will Emerge
Sure! Facebook commerce has not done as well as expected. But I regard that as a teething problem. In 2012, we saw several famous names actually withdraw from the fcommerce. The year 2013 will see the re-emergence of Facebook as a viable platform for ecommerce -- in fact some of those has stopped their fcommerce initiatives will come around a full circle, and once again start out on their Fcommerce strategy.
On this count, I should mention that I also expect to see Facebook to expand its scope and reach in commerce applications. For instance I expect to see the launch of the first fbank (Facebook Bank) in the year 2013. In a couple of years, when social banking becomes widespread, we will all look back at 2013 to recollect when it all started.
The year 2013 is going to be pretty exciting for ecommerce -- just like the preceding years were.